Census Move Signals Feb-March Timeline for 2027 Assembly Polls in Five States

New Delhi: The Centre's decision to reschedule the Census 2027 exercise in four poll-bound states and defer the process in Manipur has effectively strengthened the possibility of February-March 2027 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur.

The five states had gone to the polls together in 2022 and are once again expected to have simultaneous assembly elections. The Election Commission is likely to follow the conventional practice of completing polling before the expiry of the assembly with the earliest end of term. In this case, the Manipur Assembly's term expires on March 13, 2027.

Assembly Terms Set the Election Window

Among the five states, Manipur will be the first to complete its current assembly term, followed by Goa, Punjab and Uttarakhand.

The Goa Assembly's term expires on March 14, 2027, while the terms of the Punjab and Uttarakhand assemblies end on March 16 and March 28, respectively. Uttar Pradesh has a longer tenure, with its Assembly term scheduled to end on May 22, 2027.

Despite the later expiry date in Uttar Pradesh, the state is expected to vote alongside the other four states. This could result in polling being held nearly two months before the formal end of the UP Assembly's term.

The Constitution allows the Election Commission to conduct an assembly election within six months before the expiry of the House's term, providing sufficient flexibility for the Commission to schedule the elections earlier.

Census Schedule Adjusted Ahead of Elections

The Centre has advanced the population enumeration phase of Census 2027 in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa and the non-snow-bound areas of Uttarakhand.

The exercise is scheduled to take place from December 1, 2026, to January 4, 2027, with January 5, 2027 as the reference date. At the same time, the houselisting phase of the Census in Manipur has been deferred.

The adjustment is aimed at avoiding a logistical clash between the Census and assembly elections. Both exercises require a large government workforce, with teachers and other government employees forming an important part of the personnel used for their conduct.

Normally, the second phase of the Census is carried out across the country in February, with March 1 serving as the reference date. Advancing the exercise in the four states therefore creates space for the Election Commission to conduct elections in the following months.

Uttar Pradesh Could Vote Earlier

The timing is particularly significant for Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state and one of the biggest electoral battlegrounds.

Since the UP Assembly's term runs until May 22, the state could technically vote later than the other four states. However, if all five elections are held together, Uttar Pradesh would have to vote earlier, potentially in February or early March 2027.

Given the state's size, polling is expected to take place in multiple phases. However, the Election Commission could opt for fewer phases than in previous elections, depending on security requirements, logistics and other factors.

The formal election schedule could be announced in January 2027, according to the current assessment.

Electoral Roll Revision Underway

The Election Commission has also been working on the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in the five states.

The exercise has already been completed in Uttar Pradesh, Goa and Manipur and remains underway in Punjab and Uttarakhand. Following the completion of SIR, the electorate in Uttar Pradesh stood at around 13.4 crore, while Goa had approximately 10.6 lakh voters and Manipur around 19.3 lakh voters.

The voter lists in Punjab and Uttarakhand are expected to be finalised over the coming months.

With the election process approaching, the Commission is unlikely to undertake another annual summary revision in these states before announcing the assembly polls.

Five-State Polls to Be Closely Watched

The 2027 elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur are expected to be politically significant for both the ruling BJP-led alliance and Opposition parties.

The elections will test the political strength of the major parties across northern and northeastern India and could have implications for national politics ahead of the next general election cycle.

For the Election Commission, completing the polls before the earliest assembly expiry date of March 13, 2027, while managing the Census and electoral-roll processes, will be a major logistical exercise.

With the Census schedule now adjusted, the February-March window appears increasingly likely, although the final election dates will be announced by the Election Commission.