E-commerce Festive Sales Set to Rise Nearly 30%, Quick Commerce to Gain Share: Analysts

New Delhi: India's e-commerce festive sales are expected to hit a record high this year, with online marketplaces and retailers projected to sell goods worth Rs 1.50-1.55 lakh crore during the festive season.

According to data from market research firm Datum Intelligence, the projected festive gross merchandise value (GMV) represents an increase of around 25-29% from approximately Rs 1.20 lakh crore recorded during the 2025 festive season. The estimate excludes discounts and returns from marketplace sales.

The strong outlook comes as brands, e-commerce companies and retailers prepare for the extended festive shopping period, which typically sees a sharp increase in consumer spending across electronics, smartphones, fashion, appliances, beauty and other categories.

Mobile Phones to Remain Largest Online Category

Mobile phones are expected to account for the largest share of online festive GMV in 2026.

Datum Intelligence estimates that smartphones will contribute approximately 29.8% of online festive GMV. Lifestyle products are expected to account for around 15.5%, while appliances could contribute approximately 13.6%.

The category mix reflects continued consumer interest in premium electronics and lifestyle products during major festive sales. Smartphones, televisions, laptops and appliances are likely to remain key attractions as marketplaces and brands roll out discounts, exchange offers and other promotional schemes.

Quick Commerce Expected to Gain Festive Market Share

One of the biggest changes expected this festive season is the growing role of quick commerce.

Analysts estimate that quick-commerce platforms could account for around 16% of festive spending, translating into approximately Rs 24,000 crore.

The shift is being driven by consumers' increasing preference for convenience and instant delivery, with quick-commerce companies expanding beyond their traditional grocery-focused business models. Festive products, electronics, apparel, beauty products and other categories are increasingly being made available through rapid-delivery networks.

Quick commerce is therefore expected to compete more directly with traditional e-commerce platforms during the festive period.

Brands Introduce Festive-Specific Products

Retailers and consumer brands are also preparing festive-specific stock-keeping units (SKUs) targeted at different occasions and regional markets.

The strategy allows companies to tailor their product selection according to local festivals and consumer preferences while creating additional opportunities for festive promotions.

For online marketplaces, the availability of occasion-specific products can also encourage consumers to make more frequent purchases throughout the extended festive period.

Independence Day Sales Offer Positive Signal

The strong festive forecast follows encouraging sales trends during the Independence Day shopping period.

According to an earlier Economic Times report, brands, retailers and e-commerce platforms recorded sales growth of up to 25% in value terms during this year's Independence Day period, while sales volumes increased by around 5-7% compared with the previous year.

Reliance Retail reported more than 20% growth across grocery, electronics, apparel and its online platform JioMart, while other retailers and brands also reported stronger-than-expected demand.

The performance has provided an early indication that consumer sentiment could remain strong through the main festive shopping season.

Quick Commerce to Increase Hiring

The expected increase in festive demand is also likely to create additional employment opportunities.

Quick-commerce platforms are expected to hire around 35-40% more temporary workers this festive season compared with last year, according to staffing and recruitment experts.

The hiring requirement extends beyond traditional delivery roles. Companies are increasingly looking for workers who can manage warehouse systems, inventory reconciliation, automated pick-and-pack operations, barcode and RFID scanners and other digital workflows.

Staffing firms estimate that the quick-commerce sector alone could create around 100,000 temporary jobs, although some estimates put the potential requirement as high as 300,000.

Dark Stores Expand Beyond Grocery

The growing festive role of quick commerce is closely linked to the expansion of dark stores and fulfilment networks.

Quick-commerce companies are increasingly stocking products beyond everyday groceries. Dark stores now carry categories such as consumer electronics, festive apparel, home appliances and premium beauty products.

According to Randstad India, quick-commerce companies currently operate approximately 5,500-6,000 operational dark stores in Tier-I hubs and are expanding into Tier-II and Tier-III urban markets. The staffing firm expects another 1,000-1,500 dark stores could be added over the next 12-18 months.

This expansion could allow quick-commerce companies to capture more festive purchases outside major metropolitan areas.

Premiumisation Supports Festive Demand

Another important trend is premiumisation, with consumers showing willingness to spend more on higher-value products.

The Independence Day sales period saw demand for premium televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, smartphones and other consumer electronics. Some categories also recorded strong value growth despite higher prices.

This could support overall festive GMV even if unit growth remains more moderate.

However, higher product prices, raw-material costs and promotional expenses could put pressure on retailer and brand margins.

E-commerce and Quick Commerce Set for Intense Competition

The expected growth in festive spending is likely to intensify competition between traditional e-commerce marketplaces and quick-commerce platforms.

E-commerce companies have an advantage in terms of broader selection and established festive-sale ecosystems, while quick commerce is increasingly competing on speed, convenience and hyperlocal availability.

The two formats are therefore likely to coexist during the festive season, with consumers choosing between planned purchases from large marketplaces and immediate or last-minute purchases through quick-commerce apps.

Festive Shopping Outlook

The 2026 festive season is shaping up to be an important period for India's consumer economy.

With online festive GMV expected to reach Rs 1.50-1.55 lakh crore, e-commerce marketplaces are preparing for one of their strongest sales periods yet. Meanwhile, quick commerce could account for around Rs 24,000 crore of festive spending as instant delivery becomes increasingly important to consumers.

The combination of higher consumer demand, premiumisation, wider product availability and expanding delivery networks could make this festive season a significant test of India's evolving retail landscape.