IMD Cuts Monsoon Forecast, Warns India of Hotter June

IMD downgrades monsoon outlook as heat concerns grow

India’s weather outlook for the coming weeks has turned more worrying after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its monsoon forecast downward and warned of a hotter-than-usual June across large parts of the country.

Officials said several regions could witness below-normal rainfall during the crucial southwest monsoon season, while persistent heat conditions may continue through June despite the expected arrival of monsoon currents over parts of India.

The updated forecast comes at a sensitive time. Millions of farmers are preparing for kharif sowing, reservoirs in several states remain under pressure, and power demand has already surged due to prolonged heatwaves earlier this year.

According to IMD officials, the changing weather pattern is linked to weakening monsoon-supporting conditions over the Indian Ocean and emerging atmospheric disturbances that may affect rainfall distribution.

What the IMD said

In its latest weather briefing, the IMD stated that cumulative monsoon rainfall for parts of northwest, central, and eastern India may remain below the long-period average.

Meteorologists also warned that daytime temperatures in June are likely to stay above normal in several states, especially across north and east India. Humidity levels are expected to rise significantly once monsoon winds advance, increasing discomfort in coastal and urban areas.

An IMD scientist familiar with the forecast said the situation does not indicate a drought yet, but rainfall distribution could become “highly uneven.”

“The monsoon may progress normally in terms of arrival dates, but the spatial distribution of rain remains a concern. Some areas could see heavy bursts while others remain dry for extended periods,” the official said.

The southwest monsoon typically contributes nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall and remains critical for agriculture, drinking water supply, and hydropower generation.

Why the forecast was downgraded

Weather experts point to multiple global and regional factors behind the revised outlook.

One of the key reasons is the weakening of favorable oceanic conditions in the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Meteorologists are closely monitoring the possibility of a developing El Niño-like influence, which historically weakens Indian monsoon performance.

At the same time, sea surface temperatures across parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal remain unusually high. While warmer waters can intensify short spells of rain, they can also destabilize normal monsoon circulation.

Climate scientists say the monsoon is becoming increasingly erratic due to long-term warming trends.

Dr. Ananya Bhattacharya, a climate researcher based in Kolkata, said India is now seeing “compressed rainfall patterns.”

“We are receiving intense rain over fewer days instead of stable seasonal rainfall. That affects farming cycles, groundwater recharge, and urban flooding risks simultaneously,” she explained.

Impact on farmers and food prices

The IMD update has immediately triggered concern in agricultural markets.

A weak or uneven monsoon can affect sowing of rice, pulses, sugarcane, cotton, and oilseeds. States dependent on rain-fed farming are especially vulnerable during the kharif season.

In eastern India, including parts of West Bengal, delayed or insufficient rainfall during June can disrupt paddy transplantation and increase irrigation costs for farmers.

Agricultural economists warn that lower rainfall could also push up prices of vegetables, cereals, and edible oils later this year if crop yields decline.

Food inflation has already remained volatile in recent months due to weather-related disruptions.

A senior agriculture department official said state governments have been advised to prepare contingency plans, including seed distribution and irrigation management strategies.

West Bengal and Haldia may feel humidity pressure

For coastal regions such as Haldia and nearby districts in West Bengal, the immediate concern may not only be rainfall shortage but also extreme humidity and heat stress.

Weather officials expect moisture-laden winds from the Bay of Bengal to increase discomfort levels even before steady rainfall begins. Industrial zones, dock workers, transport operators, and outdoor laborers may face difficult working conditions through early June.

Kolkata and adjoining districts have already experienced repeated spells of high humidity over the past two weeks.

Experts say urban areas with dense concrete infrastructure are likely to witness stronger “heat island” effects, where temperatures remain elevated even during nighttime.

Power demand likely to rise further

The hotter June forecast is also expected to put additional strain on India’s electricity grid.

Power consumption touched record levels earlier this summer as air-conditioner and cooling demand surged across major cities. If temperatures remain high and rainfall remains patchy, electricity demand could continue to stay elevated through June and July.

Energy analysts say coal inventories and power distribution systems will need close monitoring in several states.

Industries dependent on uninterrupted power supply, including petrochemical and port-linked sectors in eastern India, may also face operational challenges if peak demand intensifies.

Public health concerns increasing

Doctors have warned that prolonged heat exposure combined with high humidity can significantly increase health risks, particularly for elderly citizens, children, and outdoor workers.

Hospitals in multiple cities have already reported rising cases of dehydration, fatigue, heat exhaustion, and respiratory stress.

Public health experts are urging people to remain hydrated, avoid prolonged afternoon exposure, and monitor local weather advisories carefully.

The National Disaster Management Authority has also advised state administrations to strengthen heat action plans in vulnerable districts.

Political and public reactions

Opposition leaders in several states have questioned whether authorities are adequately prepared for the combined impact of heatwaves and rainfall deficiency.

Meanwhile, social media platforms saw intense discussion after the IMD update, with many users expressing concern over worsening climate volatility and rising summer temperatures.

Environmental groups renewed calls for better urban planning, water conservation measures, and climate-resilient farming practices.

What happens next

Meteorologists say the next two to three weeks will be crucial in determining the overall trajectory of the monsoon season.

The IMD is expected to issue updated regional forecasts as monsoon currents advance further into southern and eastern India. Weather agencies are also monitoring low-pressure systems forming over the Bay of Bengal that could temporarily improve rainfall activity in some regions.

For now, however, the message from forecasters remains cautious: India may be heading into a hotter, more unpredictable monsoon season than initially expected.